The crucial lesson learned from the recent Great Financial Crisis refers to attaining a sustainable monetary and financial stability simultaneously by searching for quite a new compass for central bank policies, by incorporating systematically long-duration and disruptive financial “booms and busts” in the policy frameworks. Since the recent crisis, with a balance-sheet recession, central banks in an environment of low inflation and interest rates for nearly three decades, are drifting in uncharted waters.
They need to prevent or mitigate the impact of financial cycles by learning more deliberately against the unsustainable credit-driven booms (the build-up of debet) owing to the powerful procyclical forces at play, even if near-term inflation remains subdued. Policy makers that lose sight of the continued build-up of financial imbalances (boom) give priority to containing short-run recessions at the price of longer recessions down the road (bust). In this way such a policy postpones the day of reckoning and the result will be “an unfinished recession” with high macro-economic costs in the long run (see the period 2001-2007). Moreover an easing less aggressively and persistently during bust has to be abandoned.
Such a policy-framework for central banks, in combination with a macroeconomic oriented bank supervision will lead to a prevention of financial instability on the one side and promoting post-crisis recoveries on the other side.
15.00 Interactive keynote "A Tour d'Horizon in the World Economy" (emeritus prof.dr. J. Sijben)
17.00 Network drinks
Exclusively accessible to alumni and students of TIAS